Obama’s Uniquely Awful Veep Prospect

Saturday, August 2nd, 2008

What the Obama camp is doing is clear enough. They are signaling that the candidate might consider a bipartisan “unity” ticket. That’s reasonable, as long as the Republican has some record of taking stands that might by some reasonable stretch of the imagination be considered breaks with Republican orthodoxy. Of course, Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, an edgier critic of the Bush administration’s foreign policies than most Democrats who recently traveled with Obama to Afghanistan and Iraq, tops most lists of cross-over contenders.

Maybe someone like former Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee, a steadfast Iraq War foe who has endorsed Obama, would find a place on a list of possible running mates.

Perhaps former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Danforth, who was no liberal when he served as a senator from Missouri but who is universally recognized as an honorable and realistic political player, would fit the bill.

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Many Factors Pushing Food Crisis

Sunday, May 25th, 2008

The new hunger has triggered riots from Haiti to Egypt to Ethiopia, threatening political stability; it has conjured up a raft of protectionist policies, threatening globalization. And yet the response to this crisis from governments the world over has been lackadaisical or worse.

Start with the lunatic story of rice stockpiles in Japan. A new paper from the Center for Global Development describes how Japan’s government imports rice in order to comply with its global trade commitments but withholds most of that rice from consumers lest they decide they prefer it to the local sort. Japanese traditionalists view the consumption of sticky, short-grained rice as a patriotic duty. So rather than letting Mrs. Watanabe corrupt her children’s dietary habits, Japan stores much of its imported rice until it has become unfit for human consumption, whereupon it is sold to feed livestock.

From the perspective of Japan, stockpiling rice is a costly exercise in chauvinism, but Japan can afford that. From the world’s perspective, the stockpiling is more serious. More than 3 billion people depend on rice as their daily staple, and half of them are very poor. Japan could save many of them from hunger if it released its stocks.

The scandal is not just Japanese, however. In order for Japan to sell its rice outside its borders, it needs permission from the countries that supplied it — the United States, Thailand and Vietnam. A bit of U.S. leadership could deliver that permission easily, but the Bush administration is apparently worried about a backlash from American rice growers who see no downside in high prices, thank you very much. Not for the first time in Washington do the fat welfare queens of the farm lobby trample on the poorest people in the world.

Speaking of welfare queens, Congress passed a farm bill last week with thunderous bipartisan support. The bill includes reasonable subsidies for low-income Americans hit by high food prices, but it also sprays money at farmers who already earn more than the average taxpayer and contains shockingly little for the world’s poor. Congress is considering a separate bill that would boost international food aid more substantially. But that measure has been met with shameful indifference by lawmakers and consequently has stalled.

Congress won’t even act on a common-sense proposal from the Bush administration that food aid be reformed. If the United States bought some of the food that it donates from other countries, it could get aid to the needy faster and more cheaply. But that would upset American farmers and shipping interests, as a new Council on Foreign Relations paper emphasizes. The president’s proposal has few takers on the Hill.

The Europeans, for their part, have their own way of entrenching hunger. Just as Japan is wedded to its rice culture, Europe is irrationally hostile to genetically modified food. Study after study has found no danger in seeds that have been manipulated to grow better, withstand insects or survive in arid soil. But the Europeans still feel squeamish, and their hang-up deters Africans from taking advantage of crop science lest their exports be barred from European markets. Again, a peccadillo that to Europeans is affordable starves people in the poor world.

Finally, poor countries themselves have made things worse. Panicked at the prospect of food riots, countries with crop surpluses have forbidden exports in an attempt to bottle up supply and keep prices down. More than 40 countries have imposed some kind of export restraint, with the result that countries suffering food deficits have seen prices hit the roof. This nationalized hoarding is frustrating international relief efforts. The World Food Program has sought to buy food from countries with surpluses, such as Pakistan, to ship to desperate neighbors such as Afghanistan. But Pakistan drags its feet about selling.

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How the Pentagon Spreads Its Message on War

Sunday, April 20th, 2008

by David Barstow

(The NY Times)In the summer of 2005, the Bush administration confronted a fresh wave of criticism over Guantamo Bay. The detention center had just been branded he gulag of our times?by Amnesty International, there were new allegations of abuse from United Nations human rights experts and calls were mounting for its closure.

The administration communications experts responded swiftly.

Early one Friday morning, they put a group of retired military officers

on one of the jets normally used by Vice President Dick Cheney and flew them to Cuba for a carefully orchestrated tour of Guantamo.

To the public, these men are members of a familiar fraternity,

presented tens of thousands of times on television and radio as

ilitary analysts?whose long service has equipped them to give

authoritative and unfettered judgments about the most pressing issues

of the post-Sept. 11 world.

Hidden behind that appearance of objectivity, though, is a Pentagon

information apparatus that has used those analysts in a campaign to

generate favorable news coverage of the administration wartime

performance, an examination by The New York Times has found.

The effort, which began with the buildup to the Iraq

war and continues to this day, has sought to exploit ideological and

military allegiances, and also a powerful financial dynamic: Most of

the analysts have ties to military contractors vested in the very war

policies they are asked to assess on air.

Those business relationships are hardly ever disclosed to the

viewers, and sometimes not even to the networks themselves. But

collectively, the men on the plane and several dozen other military

analysts represent more than 150 military contractors either as

lobbyists, senior executives, board members or consultants. The

companies include defense heavyweights, but also scores of smaller

companies, all part of a vast assemblage of contractors scrambling for

hundreds of billions in military business generated by the

administration war on terror. It is a furious competition, one in

which inside information and easy access to senior officials are highly

prized.

Records and interviews show how the Bush administration has used

its control over access and information in an effort to transform the

analysts into a kind of media Trojan horse ?an instrument intended to

shape terrorism coverage from inside the major TV and radio networks.

Analysts have been wooed in hundreds of private briefings with

senior military leaders, including officials with significant influence

over contracting and budget matters, records show. They have been taken

on tours of Iraq and given access to classified intelligence. They have

been briefed by officials from the White House, State Department and

Justice Department, including Mr. Cheney, Alberto R. Gonzales and Stephen J. Hadley.

In turn, members of this group have echoed administration talking

points, sometimes even when they suspected the information was false or

inflated. Some analysts acknowledge they suppressed doubts because they

feared jeopardizing their access.

A few expressed regret for participating in what they regarded as

an effort to dupe the American public with propaganda dressed as

independent military analysis.

揑t was them saying, 慦e need to stick our hands up your back and

move your mouth for you,?nbsp;?Robert S. Bevelacqua, a retired Green Beret

and former Fox News analyst, said.

Kenneth Allard, a former NBC military analyst who has taught

information warfare at the National Defense University, said the

campaign amounted to a sophisticated information operation. his was a

coherent, active policy,?he said.

As conditions in Iraq deteriorated, Mr. Allard recalled, he saw a

yawning gap between what analysts were told in private briefings and

what subsequent inquiries and books later revealed.

揘ight and day,?Mr. Allard said, 揑 felt we抎 been hosed.?

The Pentagon defended its relationship with military analysts,

saying they had been given only factual information about the war. he

intent and purpose of this is nothing other than an earnest attempt to

inform the American people,?Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, said.

It was, Mr. Whitman added, bit incredible?to think retired

military officers could be ound up?and turned into uppets of the

Defense Department.?/p>

Many analysts strongly denied that they had either been co-opted or

had allowed outside business interests to affect their on-air comments,

and some have used their platforms to criticize the conduct of the war.

Several, like Jeffrey D. McCausland, a CBS military analyst and defense

industry lobbyist, said they kept their networks informed of their

outside work and recused themselves from coverage that touched on

business interests.

揑抦 not here representing the administration,?Dr. McCausland said.

Some network officials, meanwhile, acknowledged only a limited

understanding of their analysts?interactions with the administration.

They said that while they were sensitive to potential conflicts of

interest, they did not hold their analysts to the same ethical

standards as their news employees regarding outside financial

interests. The onus is on their analysts to disclose conflicts, they

said. And whatever the contributions of military analysts, they also

noted the many network journalists who have covered the war for years

in all its complexity.

Five years into the Iraq war, most details of the architecture and

execution of the Pentagon campaign have never been disclosed. But The

Times successfully sued the Defense Department to gain access to 8,000

pages of e-mail messages, transcripts and records describing years of

private briefings, trips to Iraq and Guantamo and an extensive

Pentagon talking points operation.

These records reveal a symbiotic relationship where the usual

dividing lines between government and journalism have been obliterated.

Internal Pentagon documents repeatedly refer to the military

analysts as essage force multipliers?or urrogates?who could be

counted on to deliver administration hemes and messages?to millions

of Americans 搃n the form of their own opinions.?/p>

Though many analysts are paid network consultants, making $500 to

$1,000 per appearance, in Pentagon meetings they sometimes spoke as if

they were operating behind enemy lines, interviews and transcripts

show. Some offered the Pentagon tips on how to outmaneuver the

networks, or as one analyst put it to Donald H. Rumsfeld,

then the defense secretary, he Chris Matthewses and the Wolf Blitzers

of the world.?Some warned of planned stories or sent the Pentagon

copies of their correspondence with network news executives. Many ?
although certainly not all ?faithfully echoed talking points intended

to counter critics.

揋ood work,?Thomas G. McInerney, a retired Air Force general,

consultant and Fox News analyst, wrote to the Pentagon after receiving

fresh talking points in late 2006. e will use it.?/p>

Again and again, records show, the administration has enlisted

analysts as a rapid reaction force to rebut what it viewed as critical

news coverage, some of it by the networks?own Pentagon correspondents.

For example, when news articles revealed that troops in Iraq were dying

because of inadequate body armor, a senior Pentagon official wrote to

his colleagues: 揑 think our analysts ?properly armed ?can push back

in that arena.?/p>

The documents released by the Pentagon do not show any quid pro quo

between commentary and contracts. But some analysts said they had used

the special access as a marketing and networking opportunity or as a

window into future business possibilities.

John C. Garrett is a retired Army colonel and unpaid analyst for

Fox News TV and radio. He is also a lobbyist at Patton Boggs who helps

firms win Pentagon contracts, including in Iraq. In promotional

materials, he states that as a military analyst he 搃s privy to weekly

access and briefings with the secretary of defense, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

and other high level policy makers in the administration.?One client

told investors that Mr. Garrett special access and decades of

experience helped him o know in advance ?and in detail ?how best to

meet the needs?of the Defense Department and other agencies.

In interviews Mr. Garrett said there was an inevitable overlap

between his dual roles. He said he had gotten 搃nformation you just

otherwise would not get,?from the briefings and three

Pentagon-sponsored trips to Iraq. He also acknowledged using this

access and information to identify opportunities for clients. 揧ou

can help but look for that,?he said, adding, 揑f you know a

capability that would fill a niche or need, you try to fill it. hat

good for everybody.?/p>

At the same time, in e-mail messages to the Pentagon, Mr. Garrett

displayed an eagerness to be supportive with his television and radio

commentary. lease let me know if you have any specific points you

want covered or that you would prefer to downplay,?he wrote in January

2007, before President Bush went on TV to describe the surge strategy

in Iraq.

Conversely, the administration has demonstrated that there is a

price for sustained criticism, many analysts said. 揧ou抣l lose all

access,?Dr. McCausland said.

With a majority of Americans calling the war a mistake despite all

administration attempts to sway public opinion, the Pentagon has

focused in the last couple of years on cultivating in particular

military analysts frequently seen and heard in conservative news

outlets, records and interviews show.

Some of these analysts were on the mission to Cuba on June 24, 2005

?the first of six such Guantamo trips ?which was designed to

mobilize analysts against the growing perception of Guantamo as an

international symbol of inhumane treatment. On the flight to Cuba, for

much of the day at Guantamo and on the flight home that night,

Pentagon officials briefed the 10 or so analysts on their key messages

?how much had been spent improving the facility, the abuse endured by

guards, the extensive rights afforded detainees.

The results came quickly. The analysts went on TV and radio,

decrying Amnesty International, criticizing calls to close the facility

and asserting that all detainees were treated humanely.

he impressions that you抮e getting from the media and from the

various pronouncements being made by people who have not been here in

my opinion are totally false,?Donald W. Shepperd, a retired Air Force

general, reported live on CNN by phone from Guantamo that same

afternoon.

The next morning, Montgomery Meigs, a retired Army general and NBC

analyst, appeared on oday.?here been over $100 million of new

construction,?he reported. he place is very professionally run.?

Within days, transcripts of the analysts?appearances were

circulated to senior White House and Pentagon officials, cited as

evidence of progress in the battle for hearts and minds at home.

Charting the Campaign

By early 2002, detailed planning for a possible Iraq invasion was

under way, yet an obstacle loomed. Many Americans, polls showed, were

uneasy about invading a country with no clear connection to the Sept.

11 attacks. Pentagon and White House officials believed the military

analysts could play a crucial role in helping overcome this resistance.

Torie Clarke, the former public relations executive who oversaw the

Pentagon dealings with the analysts as assistant secretary of defense

for public affairs, had come to her job with distinct ideas about

achieving what she called 搃nformation dominance.?In a spin-saturated

news culture, she argued, opinion is swayed most by voices perceived as

authoritative and utterly independent.

And so even before Sept. 11, she built a system within the Pentagon

to recruit 搆ey influentials??movers and shakers from all walks who

with the proper ministrations might be counted on to generate support

for Mr. Rumsfeld priorities.

In the months after Sept. 11, as every network rushed to retain its

own all-star squad of retired military officers, Ms. Clarke and her

staff sensed a new opportunity. To Ms. Clarke team, the military

analysts were the ultimate 搆ey influential??authoritative, most of

them decorated war heroes, all reaching mass audiences.

The analysts, they noticed, often got more airtime than network

reporters, and they were not merely explaining the capabilities of

Apache helicopters. They were framing how viewers ought to interpret

events. What is more, while the analysts were in the news media, they

were not of the news media. They were military men, many of them

ideologically in sync with the administration neoconservative brain

trust, many of them important players in a military industry

anticipating large budget increases to pay for an Iraq war.

Even analysts with no defense industry ties, and no fondness for

the administration, were reluctant to be critical of military leaders,

many of whom were friends. 揑t is very hard for me to criticize the

United States Army,?said William L. Nash, a retired Army general and

ABC analyst. 揑t is my life.?/p>

Other administrations had made sporadic, small-scale attempts to

build relationships with the occasional military analyst. But these

were trifling compared with what Ms. Clarke team had in mind. Don

Meyer, an aide to Ms. Clarke, said a strategic decision was made in

2002 to make the analysts the main focus of the public relations push

to construct a case for war. Journalists were secondary. e didn

want to rely on them to be our primary vehicle to get information out,?
Mr. Meyer said.

The Pentagon regular press office would be kept separate from the

military analysts. The analysts would instead be catered to by a small

group of political appointees, with the point person being Brent T.

Krueger, another senior aide to Ms. Clarke. The decision recalled other

administration tactics that subverted traditional journalism. Federal

agencies, for example, have paid columnists to write favorably about

the administration. They have distributed to local TV stations hundreds

of fake news segments with fawning accounts of administration

accomplishments. The Pentagon itself has made covert payments to Iraqi

newspapers to publish coalition propaganda.

Rather than complain about the edia filter,?each of these

techniques simply converted the filter into an amplifier. This time,

Mr. Krueger said, the military analysts would in effect be riting the

op-ed?for the war.

Assembling the Team

From the start, interviews show, the White House took a keen

interest in which analysts had been identified by the Pentagon,

requesting lists of potential recruits, and suggesting names. Ms.

Clarke team wrote summaries describing their backgrounds, business

affiliations and where they stood on the war.

揜umsfeld ultimately cleared off on all invitees,?said Mr.

Krueger, who left the Pentagon in 2004. (Through a spokesman, Mr.

Rumsfeld declined to comment for this article.)

Over time, the Pentagon recruited more than 75 retired officers,

although some participated only briefly or sporadically. The largest

contingent was affiliated with Fox News, followed by NBC and CNN, the

other networks with 24-hour cable outlets. But analysts from CBS and

ABC were included, too. Some recruits, though not on any network

payroll, were influential in other ways ?either because they were

sought out by radio hosts, or because they often published op-ed

articles or were quoted in magazines, Web sites and newspapers. At

least nine of them have written op-ed articles for The Times.

The group was heavily represented by men involved in the business

of helping companies win military contracts. Several held senior

positions with contractors that gave them direct responsibility for

winning new Pentagon business. James Marks, a retired Army general and

analyst for CNN from 2004 to 2007, pursued military and intelligence

contracts as a senior executive with McNeil Technologies. Still others

held board positions with military firms that gave them responsibility

for government business. General McInerney, the Fox analyst, for

example, sits on the boards of several military contractors, including

Nortel Government Solutions, a supplier of communication networks.

Several were defense industry lobbyists, such as Dr. McCausland,

who works at Buchanan Ingersoll %26amp; Rooney, a major lobbying firm

where he is director of a national security team that represents

several military contractors. e offer clients access to key decision

makers,?Dr. McCausland team promised on the firm Web site.

Dr. McCausland was not the only analyst making this pledge. Another was Joseph W. Ralston,

a retired Air Force general. Soon after signing on with CBS, General

Ralston was named vice chairman of the Cohen Group, a consulting firm

headed by a former defense secretary, William Cohen, himself now a

orld affairs?analyst for CNN. he Cohen Group knows that getting to

憏es?in the aerospace and defense market ?whether in the United

States or abroad ?requires that companies have a thorough, up-to-date

understanding of the thinking of government decision makers,?the

company tells prospective clients on its Web site.

There were also ideological ties.

Two of NBC most prominent analysts, Barry R. McCaffrey

and the late Wayne A. Downing, were on the advisory board of the

Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, an advocacy group created with

White House encouragement in 2002 to help make the case for ousting Saddam Hussein. Both men also had their own consulting firms and sat on the boards of major military contractors.

Many also shared with Mr. Bush national security team a belief

that pessimistic war coverage broke the nation will to win in

Vietnam, and there was a mutual resolve not to let that happen with

this war.

This was a major theme, for example, with Paul E. Vallely, a Fox

News analyst from 2001 to 2007. A retired Army general who had

specialized in psychological warfare, Mr. Vallely co-authored a paper

in 1980 that accused American news organizations of failing to defend

the nation from 揺nemy?propaganda during Vietnam.

e lost the war ?not because we were outfought, but because we

were out Psyoped,?he wrote. He urged a radically new approach to

psychological operations in future wars ?taking aim at not just

foreign adversaries but domestic audiences, too. He called his approach

揗indWar??using network TV and radio to trengthen our national will

to victory.?/p>

The Selling of the War

From their earliest sessions with the military analysts, Mr.

Rumsfeld and his aides spoke as if they were all part of the same team.

In interviews, participants described a powerfully seductive

environment ?the uniformed escorts to Mr. Rumsfeld private

conference room, the best government china laid out, the embossed name

cards, the blizzard of PowerPoints, the solicitations of advice and

counsel, the appeals to duty and country, the warm thank you notes from

the secretary himself.

揙h, you have no idea,?Mr. Allard said, describing the effect.

揧ou抮e back. They listen to you. They listen to what you say on TV.?
It was, he said, syops on steroids??a nuanced exercise in influence

through flattery and proximity. 揑t not like it, 慦e抣l pay you

$500 to get our story out,??he said. 揑t more subtle.?/p>

The access came with a condition. Participants were instructed not

to quote their briefers directly or otherwise describe their contacts

with the Pentagon.

In the fall and winter leading up to the invasion, the Pentagon

armed its analysts with talking points portraying Iraq as an urgent

threat. The basic case became a familiar mantra: Iraq possessed

chemical and biological weapons, was developing nuclear weapons, and

might one day slip some to Al-Qaeda; an invasion would be a relatively quick and inexpensive ar of liberation.?/p>

At the Pentagon, members of Ms. Clarke staff marveled at the way

the analysts seamlessly incorporated material from talking points and

briefings as if it was their own.

揧ou could see that they were messaging,?Mr. Krueger said. 揧ou

could see they were taking verbatim what the secretary was saying or

what the technical specialists were saying. And they were saying it

over and over and over.?Some days, he added, e were able to click on

every single station and every one of our folks were up there

delivering our message. You抎 look at them and say, his is working.?nbsp;?/p>

On April 12, 2003, with major combat almost over, Mr. Rumsfeld

drafted a memorandum to Ms. Clarke. 揕et think about having some of

the folks who did such a good job as talking heads in after this thing

is over,?he wrote.

By summer, though, the first signs of the insurgency had emerged.

Reports from journalists based in Baghdad were increasingly suffused

with the imagery of mayhem.

The Pentagon did not have to search far for a counterweight.

It was time, an internal Pentagon strategy memorandum urged, to

搑e-energize surrogates and message-force multipliers,?starting with

the military analysts.

The memorandum led to a proposal to take analysts on a tour of Iraq

in September 2003, timed to help overcome the sticker shock from Mr.

Bush request for $87 billion in emergency war financing.

The group included four analysts from Fox News, one each from CNN

and ABC, and several research-group luminaries whose opinion articles

appear regularly in the nation op-ed pages.

The trip invitation promised a look at he real situation on the ground in Iraq.?/p>

The situation, as described in scores of books, was deteriorating. L. Paul Bremer III,

then the American viceroy in Iraq, wrote in his memoir, 揗y Year in

Iraq,?that he had privately warned the White House that the United

States had bout half the number of soldiers we needed here.?/p>

e抮e up against a growing and sophisticated threat,?Mr. Bremer

recalled telling the president during a private White House dinner.

That dinner took place on Sept. 24, while the analysts were touring Iraq.

Yet these harsh realities were elided, or flatly contradicted,

during the official presentations for the analysts, records show. The

itinerary, scripted to the minute, featured brief visits to a model

school, a few refurbished government buildings, a center for women

rights, a mass grave and even the gardens of Babylon.

Mostly the analysts attended briefings. These sessions, records

show, spooled out an alternative narrative, depicting an Iraq bursting

with political and economic energy, its security forces blossoming. On

the crucial question of troop levels, the briefings echoed the White

House line: No reinforcements were needed. The 揼rowing and

sophisticated threat?described by Mr. Bremer was instead depicted as

degraded, isolated and on the run.

e抮e winning,?a briefing document proclaimed.

One trip participant, General Nash of ABC, said some briefings were

so clearly rtificial?that he joked to another group member that they

were on he George Romney memorial trip to Iraq,?a reference to Mr.

Romney infamous claim that American officials had 揵rainwashed?him

into supporting the Vietnam War during a tour there in 1965, while he

was governor of Michigan.

But if the trip pounded the message of progress, it also

represented a business opportunity: direct access to the most senior

civilian and military leaders in Iraq and Kuwait, including many with a

say in how the president $87 billion would be spent. It also was a

chance to gather inside information about the most pressing needs

confronting the American mission: the acute shortages of 搖p-armored?
Humvees; the billions to be spent building military bases; the urgent

need for interpreters; and the ambitious plans to train Iraq security

forces.

Information and access of this nature had undeniable value for trip participants like William V. Cowan and Carlton A. Sherwood.

Mr. Cowan, a Fox analyst and retired Marine colonel, was the chief

executive of a new military firm, the wvc3 Group. Mr. Sherwood was its

executive vice president. At the time, the company was seeking

contracts worth tens of millions to supply body armor and

counterintelligence services in Iraq. In addition, wvc3 Group had a

written agreement to use its influence and connections to help tribal

leaders in Al Anbar Province win reconstruction contracts from the

coalition.

hose sheiks wanted access to the C.P.A.,?Mr. Cowan recalled in an

interview, referring to the Coalition Provisional Authority.

Mr. Cowan said he pleaded their cause during the trip. 揑 tried to

push hard with some of Bremer people to engage these people of Al

Anbar,?he said.

Back in Washington, Pentagon officials kept a nervous eye on how the

trip translated on the airwaves. Uncomfortable facts had bubbled up

during the trip. One briefer, for example, mentioned that the Army was

resorting to packing inadequately armored Humvees with sandbags and

Kevlar blankets. Descriptions of the Iraqi security forces were

withering. hey can shoot, but then again, they don,?one officer

told them, according to one participant notes.

揑 saw immediately in 2003 that things were going south,?General

Vallely, one of the Fox analysts on the trip, recalled in an interview

with The Times.

The Pentagon, though, need not have worried.

揧ou can believe the progress,?General Vallely told Alan Colmes

of Fox News upon his return. He predicted the insurgency would be own

to a few numbers?within months.

e could not be more excited, more pleased,?Mr. Cowan told Greta

Van Susteren of Fox News. There was barely a word about armor shortages

or corrupt Iraqi security forces. And on the key strategic question of

the moment ?whether to send more troops ?the analysts were unanimous.

揑 am so much against adding more troops,?General Shepperd said on CNN.

Access and Influence

Inside the Pentagon and at the White House, the trip was viewed as a

masterpiece in the management of perceptions, not least because it gave

fuel to complaints that ainstream?journalists were ignoring the good

news in Iraq.

e抮e hitting a home run on this trip,?a senior Pentagon official wrote in an e-mail message to Richard B. Myers and Peter Pace, then chairman and vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Its success only intensified the Pentagon campaign. The pace of

briefings accelerated. More trips were organized. Eventually the effort

involved officials from Washington to Baghdad to Kabul to Guantamo

and back to Tampa, Fla., the headquarters of United States Central

Command.

The scale reflected strong support from the top. When officials in

Iraq were slow to organize another trip for analysts, a Pentagon

official fired off an e-mail message warning that the trips ave the

highest levels of visibility?at the White House and urging them to get

moving before Lawrence Di Rita, one of Mr. Rumsfeld closest aides,

icks up the phone and starts calling the 4-stars.?/p>

Mr. Di Rita, no longer at the Defense Department, said in an

interview that a 揷onscious decision?was made to rely on the military

analysts to counteract he increasingly negative view of the war?
coming from journalists in Iraq. The analysts, he said, generally had

more supportive view?of the administration and the war, and the

combination of their TV platforms and military cachet made them ideal

for rebutting critical coverage of issues like troop morale, treatment

of detainees, inadequate equipment or poorly trained Iraqi security

forces. 揙n those issues, they were more likely to be seen as credible

spokesmen,?he said.

For analysts with military industry ties, the attention brought

access to a widening circle of influential officials beyond the

contacts they had accumulated over the course of their careers.

Charles T. Nash, a Fox military analyst and retired Navy captain, is

a consultant who helps small companies break into the military market.

Suddenly, he had entree to a host of senior military leaders, many of

whom he had never met. It was, he said, like being embedded with the

Pentagon leadership. 揧ou start to recognize what most important to

them,?he said, adding, here nothing like seeing stuff firsthand.?

Some Pentagon officials said they were well aware that some

analysts viewed their special access as a business advantage. 揙f

course we realized that,?Mr. Krueger said. e weren na飗e about

that.?/p>

They also understood the financial relationship between the networks

and their analysts. Many analysts were being paid by the it,?the

number of times they appeared on TV. The more an analyst could boast of

fresh inside information from high-level Pentagon ources,?the more

hits he could expect. The more hits, the greater his potential

influence in the military marketplace, where several analysts

prominently advertised their network roles.

hey have taken lobbying and the search for contracts to a far higher level,?Mr. Krueger said. his has been highly honed.?

Mr. Di Rita, though, said it never occurred to him that analysts

might use their access to curry favor. Nor, he said, did the Pentagon

try to exploit this dynamic. hat not something that ever crossed my

mind,?he said. In any event, he argued, the analysts and the networks

were the ones responsible for any ethical complications. e assume

they know where the lines are,?he said.

The analysts met personally with Mr. Rumsfeld at least 18 times,

records show, but that was just the beginning. They had dozens more

sessions with the most senior members of his brain trust and access to

officials responsible for managing the billions being spent in Iraq.

Other groups of 搆ey influentials?had meetings, but not nearly as

often as the analysts.

An internal memorandum in 2005 helped explain why. The memorandum,

written by a Pentagon official who had accompanied analysts to Iraq,

said that based on her observations during the trip, the analysts re

having a greater impact?on network coverage of the military. hey

have now become the go-to guys not only on breaking stories, but they

influence the views on issues,?she wrote.

Other branches of the administration also began to make use of the

analysts. Mr. Gonzales, then the attorney general, met with them soon

after news leaked that the government was wiretapping terrorism

suspects in the United States without warrants, Pentagon records show.

When David H. Petraeus was appointed the commanding general in Iraq in January 2007, one of his early acts was to meet with the analysts.

e knew we had extraordinary access,?said Timur J. Eads, a

retired Army lieutenant colonel and Fox analyst who is vice president

of government relations for Blackbird Technologies, a fast-growing

military contractor.

Like several other analysts, Mr. Eads said he had at times held his

tongue on television for fear that ome four-star could call up and

say, æ…˜ill that contract.?nbsp;?For example, he believed Pentagon

officials misled the analysts about the progress of Iraq security

forces. 揑 know a snow job when I see one,?he said. He did not share

this on TV.

揌uman nature,?he explained, though he noted other instances when he was critical.

Some analysts said that even before the war started, they privately

had questions about the justification for the invasion, but were

careful not to express them on air.

Mr. Bevelacqua, then a Fox analyst, was among those invited to a

briefing in early 2003 about Iraq purported stockpiles of illicit

weapons. He recalled asking the briefer whether the United States had

moking gun?proof.

?nbsp;æ…¦e don have any hard evidence,?nbsp;?Mr. Bevelacqua recalled the

briefer replying. He said he and other analysts were alarmed by this

concession. e are looking at ourselves saying, æ…¦hat are we doing??nbsp;?

Another analyst, Robert L. Maginnis, a retired Army lieutenant

colonel who works in the Pentagon for a military contractor, attended

the same briefing and recalled feeling 搗ery disappointed?after being

shown satellite photographs purporting to show bunkers associated with

a hidden weapons program. Mr. Maginnis said he concluded that the

analysts were being anipulated?to convey a false sense of certainty

about the evidence of the weapons. Yet he and Mr. Bevelacqua and the

other analysts who attended the briefing did not share any misgivings

with the American public.

Mr. Bevelacqua and another Fox analyst, Mr. Cowan, had formed the

wvc3 Group, and hoped to win military and national security contracts.

here no way I was going to go down that road and get completely

torn apart,?Mr. Bevelacqua said. 揧ou抮e talking about fighting a huge

machine.?

Some e-mail messages between the Pentagon and the analysts reveal an

implicit trade of privileged access for favorable coverage. Robert H.

Scales Jr., a retired Army general and analyst for Fox News and National Public Radio

whose consulting company advises several military firms on weapons and

tactics used in Iraq, wanted the Pentagon to approve high-level

briefings for him inside Iraq in 2006.

揜ecall the stuff I did after my last visit,?he wrote. 揑 will do the same this time.?/p>

Pentagon Keeps Tabs

As it happened, the analysts?news media appearances were being

closely monitored. The Pentagon paid a private contractor, Omnitec

Solutions, hundreds of thousands of dollars to scour databases for any

trace of the analysts, be it a segment on he O扲eilly Factor?or an

interview with The Daily Inter Lake in Montana, circulation 20,000.

Omnitec evaluated their appearances using the same tools as

corporate branding experts. One report, assessing the impact of several

trips to Iraq in 2005, offered example after example of analysts

echoing Pentagon themes on all the networks.

揅ommentary from all three Iraq trips was extremely positive over all,?the report concluded.

In interviews, several analysts reacted with dismay when told they

were described as reliable urrogates?in Pentagon documents. And some

asserted that their Pentagon sessions were, as David L. Grange, a

retired Army general and CNN analyst put it, 搄ust upfront

information,?while others pointed out, accurately, that they did not

always agree with the administration or each other. 揘one of us drink

the Kool-Aid,?General Scales said.

Likewise, several also denied using their special access for

business gain. 揘ot related at all,?General Shepperd said, pointing

out that many in the Pentagon held CNN 搃n the lowest esteem.?

Still, even the mildest of criticism could draw a challenge.

Several analysts told of fielding telephone calls from displeased

defense officials only minutes after being on the air.

On Aug. 3, 2005, 14 marines died in Iraq. That day, Mr. Cowan, who

said he had grown increasingly uncomfortable with the wisted version

of reality?being pushed on analysts in briefings, called the Pentagon

to give heads-up?that some of his comments on Fox ay not all be

friendly,?Pentagon records show. Mr. Rumsfeld senior aides quickly

arranged a private briefing for him, yet when he told Bill O’Reilly that the United States was 搉ot on a good glide path right now?in Iraq, the repercussions were swift.

Mr. Cowan said he was recipitously fired from the analysts group?
for this appearance. The Pentagon, he wrote in an e-mail message,

imply didn like the fact that I wasn carrying their water.?The

next day James T. Conway, then director of operations for the Joint

Chiefs, presided over another conference call with analysts. He urged

them, a transcript shows, not to let the marines?deaths further erode

support for the war.

he strategic target remains our population,?General Conway said.

e can lose people day in and day out, but they抮e never going to beat

our military. What they can and will do if they can is strip away our

support. And you guys can help us not let that happen.?/p>

揋eneral, I just made that point on the air,?an analyst replied.

揕et work it together, guys,?General Conway urged.

The Generals?Revolt

The full dimensions of this mutual embrace were perhaps never

clearer than in April 2006, after several of Mr. Rumsfeld former

generals ?none of them network military analysts ?went public with

devastating critiques of his wartime performance. Some called for his

resignation.

On Friday, April 14, with what came to be called the 揋enerals?
Revolt?dominating headlines, Mr. Rumsfeld instructed aides to summon

military analysts to a meeting with him early the next week, records

show. When an aide urged a short delay to 揼ive our big guys on the

West Coast a little more time to buy a ticket and get here,?Mr.

Rumsfeld office insisted that he boss?wanted the meeting fast 揻or

impact on the current story.?

That same day, Pentagon officials helped two Fox analysts, General

McInerney and General Vallely, write an opinion article for The Wall

Street Journal defending Mr. Rumsfeld.

揝tarting to write it now,?General Vallely wrote to the Pentagon

that afternoon. 揂ny input for the article,?he added a little later,

ill be much appreciated.?Mr. Rumsfeld office quickly forwarded

talking points and statistics to rebut the notion of a spreading revolt.

揤allely is going to use the numbers,?a Pentagon official reported that afternoon.

The standard secrecy notwithstanding, plans for this session

leaked, producing a front-page story in The Times that Sunday. In

damage-control mode, Pentagon officials scrambled to present the

meeting as routine and directed that communications with analysts be

kept 搗ery formal,?records show. his is very, very sensitive now,?a

Pentagon official warned subordinates.

On Tuesday, April 18, some 17 analysts assembled at the Pentagon

with Mr. Rumsfeld and General Pace, then the chairman of the Joint

Chiefs.

A transcript of that session, never before disclosed, shows a

shared determination to marginalize war critics and revive public

support for the war.

揑抦 an old intel guy,?said one analyst. (The transcript omits

speakers?names.) 揂nd I can sum all of this up, unfortunately, with

one word. That is Psyops. Now most people may hear that and they think,

慜h my God, they抮e trying to brainwash.?nbsp;?

hat are you, some kind of a nut??Mr. Rumsfeld cut in, drawing laughter. 揧ou don believe in the Constitution??/p>

There was little discussion about the actual criticism pouring

forth from Mr. Rumsfeld former generals. Analysts argued that

opposition to the war was rooted in perceptions fed by the news media,

not reality. The administration overall war strategy, they counseled,

was 揵rilliant?and 搗ery successful.?/p>

揊rankly,?one participant said, 揻rom a military point of view,

the penalty, 2,400 brave Americans whom we lost, 3,000 in an hour and

15 minutes, is relative.?/p>

An analyst said at another point: his is a wider war. And whether

we have democracy in Iraq or not, it doesn mean a tinker damn if we

end up with the result we want, which is a regime over there that not

a threat to us.?/p>

揧eah,?Mr. Rumsfeld said, taking notes.

But winning or not, they bluntly warned, the administration was in

grave political danger so long as most Americans viewed Iraq as a lost

cause. 揂merica hates a loser,?one analyst said.

Much of the session was devoted to ways that Mr. Rumsfeld could

reverse the olitical tide.?One analyst urged Mr. Rumsfeld to 搄ust

crush these people,?and assured him that ost of the gentlemen at the

table?would enthusiastically support him if he did.

揧ou are the leader,?the analyst told Mr. Rumsfeld. 揧ou are our guy.?

At another point, an analyst made a suggestion: 揑n one of your

speeches you ought to say, 慐verybody stop for a minute and imagine an

Iraq ruled by Zarqawi.?And then you just go down the list and say,

ll right, we抳e got oil, money, sovereignty, access to the geographic

center of gravity of the Middle East, blah, blah, blah.?If you can

just paint a mental picture for Joe America to say, æ…œh my God, I can

imagine a world like that.?nbsp;?

Even as they assured Mr. Rumsfeld that they stood ready to help in

this public relations offensive, the analysts sought guidance on what

they should cite as the next ilestone?that would, as one analyst put

it, 搆eep the American people focused on the idea that we抮e moving

forward to a positive end.?They placed particular emphasis on the

growing confrontation with Iran.

hen you said 憀ong war,?you changed the psyche of the American

people to expect this to be a generational event,?an analyst said.

揂nd again, I抦 not trying to tell you how to do your job…?

揋et in line,?Mr. Rumsfeld interjected.

The meeting ended and Mr. Rumsfeld, appearing pleased and relaxed,

took the entire group into a small study and showed off treasured

keepsakes from his life, several analysts recalled.

Soon after, analysts hit the airwaves. The Omnitec monitoring

reports, circulated to more than 80 officials, confirmed that analysts

repeated many of the Pentagon talking points: that Mr. Rumsfeld

consulted 揻requently and sufficiently?with his generals; that he was

not 搊verly concerned?with the criticisms; that the meeting focused

搊n more important topics at hand,?including the next milestone in

Iraq, the formation of a new government.

Days later, Mr. Rumsfeld wrote a memorandum distilling their collective guidance into bullet points. Two were underlined:

揊ocus on the Global War on Terror ?not simply Iraq. The wider war ?the long war.?/p>

揕ink Iraq to Iran. Iran is the concern. If we fail in Iraq or Afghanistan, it will help Iran.?/p>

But if Mr. Rumsfeld found the session instructive, at least one participant, General Nash, the ABC analyst, was repulsed.

揑 walked away from that session having total disrespect for my

fellow commentators, with perhaps one or two exceptions,?he said.

View From the Networks

Two weeks ago General Petraeus took time out from testifying before

Congress about Iraq for a conference call with military analysts.

Mr. Garrett, the Fox analyst and Patton Boggs lobbyist, said he

told General Petraeus during the call to 搆eep up the great work.?/p>

揌ey,?Mr. Garrett said in an interview, nything we can do to help.?/p>

For the moment, though, because of heavy election coverage and

general war fatigue, military analysts are not getting nearly as much

TV time, and the networks have trimmed their rosters of analysts. The

conference call with General Petraeus, for example, produced little in

the way of immediate coverage.

Still, almost weekly the Pentagon continues to conduct briefings

with selected military analysts. Many analysts said network officials

were only dimly aware of these interactions. The networks, they said,

have little grasp of how often they meet with senior officials, or what

is discussed.

揑 don think NBC was even aware we were participating,?said Rick Francona, a longtime military analyst for the network.

Some networks publish biographies on their Web sites that describe

their analysts?military backgrounds and, in some cases, give at least

limited information about their business ties. But many analysts also

said the networks asked few questions about their outside business

interests, the nature of their work or the potential for that work to

create conflicts of interest. 揘one of that ever happened,?said Mr.

Allard, an NBC analyst until 2006.

he worst conflict of interest was no interest.?/p>

Mr. Allard and other analysts said their network handlers also

raised no objections when the Defense Department began paying their

commercial airfare for Pentagon-sponsored trips to Iraq ?a clear

ethical violation for most news organizations.

CBS News declined to comment on what it knew about its military

analysts?business affiliations or what steps it took to guard against

potential conflicts.

NBC News also declined to discuss its procedures for hiring and

monitoring military analysts. The network issued a short statement: e

have clear policies in place to assure that the people who appear on

our air have been appropriately vetted and that nothing in their

profile would lead to even a perception of a conflict of interest.?/p>

Jeffrey W. Schneider, a spokesman for ABC, said that while the

network military consultants were not held to the same ethical rules

as its full-time journalists, they were expected to keep the network

informed about any outside business entanglements. e make it clear to

them we expect them to keep us closely apprised,?he said.

A spokeswoman for Fox News said executives 搑efused to participate?in this article.

CNN requires its military analysts to disclose in writing all

outside sources of income. But like the other networks, it does not

provide its military analysts with the kind of written, specific

ethical guidelines it gives its full-time employees for avoiding real

or apparent conflicts of interest.

Yet even where controls exist, they have sometimes proven porous.

CNN, for example, said it was unaware for nearly three years that

one of its main military analysts, General Marks, was deeply involved

in the business of seeking government contracts, including contracts

related to Iraq.

General Marks was hired by CNN in 2004, about the time he took a

management position at McNeil Technologies, where his job was to pursue

military and intelligence contracts. As required, General Marks

disclosed that he received income from McNeil Technologies. But the

disclosure form did not require him to describe what his job entailed,

and CNN acknowledges it failed to do additional vetting.

e did not ask Mr. Marks the follow-up questions we should have,?CNN said in a written statement.

In an interview, General Marks said it was no secret at CNN that

his job at McNeil Technologies was about winning contracts. 揑 mean,

that what McNeil does,?he said.

CNN, however, said it did not know the nature of McNeil military

business or what General Marks did for the company. If he was bidding

on Pentagon contracts, CNN said, that should have disqualified him from

being a military analyst for the network. But in the summer and fall of

2006, even as he was regularly asked to comment on conditions in Iraq,

General Marks was working intensively on bidding for a $4.6 billion

contract to provide thousands of translators to United States forces in

Iraq. In fact, General Marks was made president of the McNeil spin-off

that won the huge contract in December 2006.

General Marks said his work on the contract did not affect his

commentary on CNN. 揑抳e got zero challenge separating myself from a

business interest,?he said.

But CNN said it had no idea about his role in the contract until

July 2007, when it reviewed his most recent disclosure form, submitted

months earlier, and finally made inquiries about his new job.

e saw the extent of his dealings and determined at that time we should end our relationship with him,?CNN said.

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12 Reasons to Get Out of Iraq

Sunday, April 20th, 2008

by Tom Engelhardt

(Tom Dispatch)

Can there be any question that, since the invasion of 2003, Iraq has

been unraveling? And here’s the curious thing: Despite a lack of decent

information and analysis on crucial aspects of the Iraqi catastrophe,

despite the way much of the Iraq story fell off newspaper front pages

and out of the TV news in the last year, despite so many reports on the

success of the President’s surge strategy, Americans sense this

perfectly well. In the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll, 56% of Americans say the United States should withdraw its military forces to avoid further casualties and this has, as the Post

notes, been a majority position since January 2007, the month that the

surge was first announced. Imagine what might happen if the American

public knew more about the actual state of affairs in Iraq — and of

thinking in Washington. So, here, in an attempt to unravel the

situation in ever-unraveling Iraq are twelve answers to questions which

should be asked far more often in this country:

1. Yes, the war has morphed into the U.S. military’s worst Iraq nightmare:

Few now remember, but before George W. Bush launched the invasion of

Iraq in March 2003, top administration and Pentagon officials had a

single overriding nightmare — not chemical, but urban, warfare. Saddam

Hussein, they feared, would lure American forces into Fortress Baghdad, as Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld labeled it. There, they would find themselves fighting block by block, especially in the warren of streets that make up the Iraqi capital’s poorest districts.

When American forces actually entered Baghdad in early April 2003,

however, even Saddam’s vaunted Republican Guard units had put away

their weapons and gone home. It took five years but, as of now,

American troops are indeed fighting in the warren of streets in Sadr

City, the Shiite slum of two and a half million in eastern Baghdad

largely controlled by Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army militia. The U.S.

military, in fact, recently experienced its worst week

of 2008 in terms of casualties, mainly in and around Baghdad. So,

mission accomplished — the worst fear of 2003 has now been realized.

2. No, there was never an exit strategy from Iraq because the Bush administration never intended to leave — and still doesn’t:

Critics of the war have regularly gone after the Bush administration

for its lack of planning, including its lack of an exit strategy. In

this, they miss the point. The Bush administration arrived in Iraq with

four mega-bases on the drawing boards.

These were meant to undergird a future American garrisoning of that

country and were to house at least 30,000 American troops, as well as

U.S. air power, for the indefinite future. The term used for such

places wasn’t permanent base, but the more charming and euphemistic

enduring camp. (In fact, as we learned recently,

the Bush administration refuses to define any American base on foreign

soil anywhere on the planet, including ones in Japan for over 60 years,

as permanent.) Those four monster bases in Iraq (and many others) were soon being built at the cost of multibillions and are, even today, being significantly upgraded.

In October 2007, for instance, National Public Radio’s defense

correspondent Guy Raz visited Balad Air Base, north of Baghdad, which

houses about 40,000 American troops, contractors, and Defense

Department civilian employees, and described

it as one giant construction project, with new roads, sidewalks, and

structures going up across this 16-square-mile fortress in the center

of Iraq, all with an eye toward the next few decades.

These mega-bases, like Camp Cupcake

(al-Asad Air Base), nicknamed for its amenities, are small town-sized

with massive facilities, including PXs, fast-food outlets, and the

latest in communications. They have largely been ignored by the

American media and so have played no part in the debate about Iraq in

this country, but they are the most striking on-the-ground evidence of

the plans of an administration that simply never expected to leave. To

this day, despite the endless talk about drawdowns and withdrawals,

that hasn’t changed. In fact, the latest news about secret negotiations

for a future Status of Forces Agreement on the American presence in

that country indicates that U.S. officials are calling for an

open-ended military presence and no limits on numbers of U.S. forces,

the weapons they are able to deploy, their legal status or powers over

Iraqi citizens, going far beyond long-term U.S. security agreements

with other countries.

3. Yes, the United States is still occupying Iraq (just not particularly effectively): In June 2004,

the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), then ruling the country,

officially turned over sovereignty to an Iraqi government largely

housed in the American-controlled Green Zone in Baghdad and the

occupation officially ended. However, the day before the head of the

CPA, L. Paul Bremer III, slipped out of the country without fanfare, he signed, among other degrees, Order 17,

which became (and, remarkably enough, remains) the law of the land. It

is still a document worth reading as it essentially granted to all

occupying forces and allied private companies what, in the era of

colonialism, used to be called extraterritoriality — the freedom not

to be in any way subject to Iraqi law or jurisdiction, ever. And so the

occupation ended without ever actually ending. With 160,000 troops

still in Iraq, not to speak of an unknown number of hired guns and

private security contractors, the U.S. continues to occupy the country,

whatever the legalities might be (including a UN mandate and the claim

that we are part of a coalition). The only catch is this: As of now,

the U.S. is simply the most technologically sophisticated and

potentially destructive of Iraq’s proliferating militias — and outside

the fortified Green Zone in Baghdad, it is capable of controlling only

the ground that its troops actually occupy at any moment.

4. Yes, the war was about oil: Oil was hardly mentioned in the

mainstream media or by the administration before the invasion was

launched. The President, when he spoke of Iraq’s vast petroleum reserves at all, piously referred to them as the sacred patrimony

of the people of Iraq. But an administration of former energy execs –

with a National Security Advisor who once sat on the board of Chevron

and had a double-hulled oil tanker, the Condoleezza Rice, named after her (until she took office), and a Vice President who was especially aware

of the globe’s potentially limited energy supplies — certainly had oil

reserves and energy flows on the brain. They knew, in Deputy Secretary

of Defense Paul Wolfowitz’s apt phrase, that Iraq was afloat on a sea of oil and that it sat strategically in the midst of the oil heartlands of the planet.

It wasn’t a mistake that, in 2001, Vice President Dick Cheney’s

semi-secret Energy Task Force set itself the task of opening up the

energy sectors of various Middle Eastern countries to foreign

investment; or that it scrutinized

a detailed map of Iraq’s oil fields, together with the (non-American)

oil companies scheduled to develop them; or that, according to the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer, the National Security Council directed

its staff to cooperate fully with the Energy Task Force as it

considered the ‘melding’ of two seemingly unrelated areas of policy:

‘the review of operational policies towards rogue states,’ such as

Iraq, and ‘actions regarding the capture of new and existing oil and

gas fields’; or that the only American troops ordered to guard

buildings in Iraq, after Baghdad fell, were sent to the Oil Ministry

(and the Interior Ministry, which housed Saddam Hussein’s dreaded

secret police); or that the first reconstruction contract was issued

to Cheney’s former firm, Halliburton, for emergency repairs to those

patrimonial oil fields. Once in charge in Baghdad, as sociologist

Michael Schwartz has made clear,

the administration immediately began guiding recalcitrant Iraqis toward

denationalizing and opening up their oil industry, as well as bringing

in the big boys.

Though rampant insecurity has kept the Western oil giants on the

sidelines, the American-shaped Iraqi oil law quickly became a

benchmark of progress in Washington and remains a constant source

of prodding and advice from American officials in Baghdad. Former

Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan put the oil matter simply and

straightforwardly in his memoir in 2007: I am saddened, he wrote,

that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone

knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil. In other words, in a

variation on the old Bill Clinton campaign mantra: It’s the oil,

stupid. Greenspan was, unsurprisingly, roundly assaulted

for the obvious naivet?of his statement, from which, when it proved

inconvenient, he quickly retreated. But if this administration hadn’t

had oil on the brain in 2002-2003, given the importance of Iraq’s

reserves, Congress should have impeached the President and Vice

President for that.

5. No, our new embassy in Baghdad is not an embassy: When,

for more than three-quarters of a billion dollars, you construct a

complex — regularly described as Vatican-sized — of at least 20

blast-resistant buildings on 104 acres of prime Baghdadi real estate,

with fortified working space and a staff of at least 1,000 (plus

several thousand guards, cooks, and general factotums), when you deeply

embunker it, equip it with its own electricity and water systems, its

own anti-missile defense system, its own PX, and its own indoor and

outdoor basketball courts, volleyball court, and indoor Olympic-size

swimming pool, among other things, you haven’t built an embassy at

all. What you’ve constructed in the heart of the heart of another

country is more than a citadel,

even if it falls short of a city-state. It is, at a minimum, a monument

to Bush administration dreams of domination in Iraq and in what its

adherents once liked to call the Greater Middle East.

Just about ready to open, after the normal construction mishaps

in Iraq, it will constitute the living definition of diplomatic

overkill. It will, according to a Senate estimate, now cost Americans $1.2 billion

a year just to be represented in Iraq. The embassy is, in fact, the

largest headquarters on the planet for the running of an occupation.

Functionally, it is also another well-fortified enduring camp with the

amenities of home. Tell that to the Shiite militiamen now mortaring the Green Zone as if it were?enemy-occupied territory.

6. No, the Iraqi government is not a government: The government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has next to no presence

in Iraq beyond the Green Zone; it delivers next to no services; it has

next to no ability to spend its own oil money, reconstruct the country,

or do much of anything else, and it most certainly does not hold a

monopoly on the instruments of violence. It has no control over the

provinces of northern Iraq which operate as a near-independent Kurdish

state. Non-Kurdish Iraqi troops are not even allowed on its territory.

Maliki’s government cannot control the largely Sunni provinces of the

country, where its officials are regularly termed the Iranians (a

reference to the heavily Shiite government’s closeness to neighboring

Iran) and are considered the equivalent of representatives of a foreign

occupying power; and it does not control the Shiite south, where power

is fragmented among the militias of ISCI (the Badr Organization),

Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, and the armed adherents of the Fadila

Party, a Sadrist offshoot, among others.

In Afghanistan, President Hamid Karzai has been derisively nicknamed

the mayor of Kabul for his government’s lack of control over much

territory outside the national capital. It would be a step forward for

Maliki if he were nicknamed the mayor of Baghdad. Right now, his

troops, heavily backed by American forces, are fighting for some modest

control over Shiite cities (or parts of cities) from Basra to Baghdad.

7. No, the surge is not over: Two weeks ago, amid much hoopla,

General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker spent two days

before Congress discussing the President’s surge strategy in Iraq and

whether it has been a success. But that surge — the ground one in

which an extra 30,000-plus American troops were siphoned into Baghdad

and, to a lesser extent, adjoining provinces — was by then already so

over. In fact, all but about 10,000 of those troops will be home by the

end of July, not because the President has had any urge for a drawdown,

but, as Fred Kaplan of Slate wrote recently,

because of simple math. The five extra combat brigades, which were

deployed to Iraq with the surge, each have 15-month tours of duty; the

15 months will be up in July?and the U.S. Army and Marines have no combat brigades ready to replace them.

On the other hand, in all those days of yak, neither the general with so much more martial bling on his chest than any victorious World War II commander, nor the white-haired ambassador uttered a word about the surge that is ongoing — the air surge that began

in mid-2007 and has yet to end. Explain it as you will, but, with rare

exceptions, American reporters in Iraq generally don’t look up or more

of them would have noticed that the extra air units surged into that

country and the region in the last year are now being brought to bear over Iraq’s cities. Today, as fighting goes on in Sadr City, American helicopters and Hellfire-missile armed Predator drones

reportedly circle overhead almost constantly and air strikes of various

kinds on city neighborhoods are on the rise. Yet the air surge in Iraq

remains unacknowledged here and so is not a subject for discussion,

debate, or consideration when it comes to our future in Iraq.

8. No, the Iraqi army will never stand up: It can’t. It’s not

a national army. It’s not that Iraqis can’t fight — or fight bravely.

Ask the Sunni insurgents. Ask the Mahdi Army militia of Muqtada

al-Sadr. It’s not that Iraqis are incapable of functioning in a

national army. In the bitter Iran-Iraq War of 1980-88, Iraqi Shiite as

well as Sunni conscripts, led by a largely Sunni officer corps, fought

Iranian troops fiercely in battle after pitched battle. But from Fallujah in 2004 to today,

Iraqi army (and police) units, wheeled into battle (often at the behest

of the Americans), have regularly broken and run, or abandoned their

posts, or gone over to the other side, or, at the very least, fought

poorly. In the recent offensive launched by the Maliki government in

Basra, military and police units up against a single resistant militia,

the Mahdi Army, deserted in sizeable numbers, while other units, when

not backed by the Americans, gave poor showings. At least 1,300 troops

and police (including 37 senior police officers) were recently fired

by Maliki for dereliction of duty, while two top commanders were removed as well.

Though American training began in 2004 and, by 2005, the President was

regularly talking about us standing down as soon as the Iraqi Army

stood up, as Charles Hanley of the Associated Press points out,

Year by year, the goal of deploying a capable, free-standing Iraqi

army has seemed to always slip further into the future. He adds, In

the latest shift, the Pentagon’s new quarterly status report quietly

drops any prediction of when local units will take over security

responsibility for Iraq. Last year’s reports had forecast a transition

in 2008. According to Hanley, the chief American trainer of Iraqi

forces, Lt. Gen. James Dubik, now estimates that the military will not

be able to guard the country’s borders effectively until 2018.

No wonder. The Iraqi military is not in any real sense a national

military at all. Its troops generally lack heavy weaponry, and it has

neither a real air force nor a real navy.

Its command structures are integrated into the command structure of the

U.S. military, while the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy are the real

Iraqi air force and navy. It is reliant on the U.S. military for much

of its logistics and resupply, even after an investment of $22 billion

by the American taxpayer. It represents a non-government, is riddled

with recruits from Shiite militias (especially the Badr brigades), and

is riven about who its enemy is (or enemies are) and why. It cannot be

a national army because it has, in essence, nothing to stand up for.

You can count on one thing, as long as we are training and advising

the Iraqi military, however many years down the line, you will read

comments like this one

from an American platoon sergeant, after an Iraqi front-line unit

abandoned its positions in the ongoing battle for control of parts of

Sadr City: It bugs the hell out of me. We don’t see any progress being

made at all. We hear these guys in firefights. We know if we are not up

there helping these guys out we are making very little progress.

9. No, the U.S. military does not stand between Iraq and fragmentation:

The U.S. invasion and the Bush administration’s initial occupation

policies decisively smashed Iraq’s fragile national sense of self.

Since then, the Bush administration, a motor for chaos and

fragmentation, has destroyed the national (if dictatorial) government,

allowed the capital and much of the country (as well as its true patrimony of ancient historical objects and sites) to be looted, disbanded the Iraqi military, and deconstructed

the national economy. Ever since, whatever the administration rhetoric,

the U.S. has only presided over the further fragmentation of the

country. Its military, in fact, employs a specific policy of urban

fragmentation in which it regularly builds

enormous concrete walls around neighborhoods, supposedly for security

and reconstruction, that actually cut them off from their social and

economic surroundings. And, of course, Iraq has in these years been

fragmented in other staggering ways with an estimated four-plus million Iraqis driven into exile abroad or turned into internal refugees.

According to Pepe Escobar of the Asia Times,

there are now at least 28 different militias in the country. The longer

the U.S. remains even somewhat in control, the greater the possibility

of further fragmentation. Initially, the fragmentation was sectarian –

into Kurdish, Sunni, and Shia regions, but each of those regions has

its own potentially hostile parts and so its points of future conflict

and further fragmentation. If the U.S. military spent the early years

of its occupation fighting a Sunni insurgency in the name of a largely

Shiite (and Kurdish) government, it is now fighting a Shiite militia,

while paying and arming former Sunni insurgents, relabeled Sons of

Iraq. Iran is also clearly sending arms into a country that is, in any

case, awash in weaponry. Without a real national government, Iraq has

descended into a welter of militia-controlled neighborhoods, city

states, and provincial or regional semi-governments. Despite all the

talk of American-supported reconciliation, Juan Cole described the present situation well at his Informed Comment

blog: Maybe the US in Iraq is not the little boy with his finger in

the dike. Maybe we are workers with jackhammers instructed to make the

hole in the dike much more huge.

10. No, the U.S. military does not stand between Iraq and civil war:

As with fragmentation, the U.S. military’s presence has, in fact, been

a motor for civil war in that country. The invasion and subsequent

chaos, as well as punitive acts against the Sunni minority, allowed

Sunni extremists, some of whom took the name al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia,

to establish themselves as a force in the country for the first time.

Later, U.S. military operations in both Sunni and Shiite areas

regularly repressed local militias — almost the only forces capable of

bringing some semblance of security to urban neighborhoods — opening

the way for the most extreme members of the other community (Sunni

suicide or car bombers and Shiite death squads) to attack. It’s worth

remembering that it was in the surge months

of 2007, when all those extra American troops hit Baghdad

neighborhoods, that many of the city’s mixed or Sunni neighborhoods

were most definitively cleansed by death squads, producing a 75-80% Shiite capital. Iraq is now embroiled in what Juan Cole has termed three civil wars,

two of which (in the south and the north) are largely beyond the reach

of limited American ground forces and all of which could become far

worse. The still low-level struggle between Kurds and Arabs (with the

Turks hovering nearby) for the oil-rich city of Kirkuk in the north may

be the true explosion point to come. The U.S. military sits

precariously atop this mess, at best putting off to the future aspects

of the present civil-war landscape, but more likely intensifying it.

11. No, al-Qaeda will not control Iraq if we leave (and neither will Iran):

The latest figures tell the story. Of 658 suicide bombings globally in

2007 (more than double those of any year in the last quarter century),

542, according to the Washington Post’s

Robin Wright, took place in occupied Iraq or Afghanistan, mainly Iraq.

In other words, the American occupation of that land has been a motor

for acts of terrorism (as occupations will be). There was no al-Qaeda

in Mesopotamia before the invasion and Iraq was no Afghanistan. The

occupation under whatever name will continue to create terrorists, no

matter how many times the administration claims that al-Qaeda is on

the run. With the departure of U.S. troops, it’s clear that homegrown

Sunni extremists (and the small number of foreign jihadis who

work with them), already a minority of a minority, will more than meet

their match in facing the Sunni mainstream. The Sunni Awakening

Movement came into existence, in part, to deal with such

self-destructive extremism (and its fantasies of a Taliban-style

society) before the Americans even noticed that it was happening. When

the Americans leave, al-Qaeda (and whatever other groups the Bush

administration subsumes under that catch-all title) will undoubtedly

lose much of their raison d’阾re or simply be crushed.

As for Iran, the moment the Bush administration finally agreed to a

popular democratic vote in occupied Iraq, it ensured one thing — that

the Shiite majority would take control, which in practice meant

religio-political parties that, throughout the Saddam Hussein years,

had generally been close to, or in exile in, Iran. Everything the Bush

administration has done since has only ensured the growth of Iranian

influence among Shiite groups. This is surely meant by the Iranians as,

in part, a threat/trump card, should the Bush administration launch an

attack on that country. After all, crucial U.S. resupply lines from

Kuwait run through areas near Iran and would assumedly be relatively

easy to disrupt.

Without the U.S. military in Iraq, there can be no question that the

Iranians would have real influence over the Shiite (and probably

Kurdish) parts of the country. But that influence would have its

distinct limits. If Iran overplayed its hand even in a rump Shiite

Iraq, it would soon enough find itself facing some version of the

situation that now confronts the Americans. As Robert Dreyfuss wrote in the Nation

recently, [D]espite Iran’s enormous influence in Iraq, most Iraqis –

even most Iraqi Shiites — are not pro-Iran. On the contrary,

underneath the ruling alliance in Baghdad, there is a fierce

undercurrent of Arab nationalism in Iraq that opposes both the U.S.

occupation and Iran’s support for religious parties in Iraq. The

al-Qaedan and Iranian threats are, at one and the same time, bogeymen

used by the Bush administration to scare Americans who might favor

withdrawal and, paradoxically, realities that a continued military

presence only encourages.

12. Yes, some Americans were right about Iraq from the beginning (and not the pundits either): One of the strangest aspects of the recent fifth anniversary (as of every other anniversary) of the invasion of Iraq was the newspaper print space

reserved for those Bush administration officials and other war

supporters who were dead wrong in 2002-2003 on an endless host of

Iraq-related topics. Many of them were given ample opportunity to offer

their views on past failures, the success of the surge, future

withdrawals or drawdowns, and the responsibilities of a future U.S.

president in Iraq.

Noticeably missing were representatives of the group of Americans who

happened to have been right from the get-go. In our country, of course,

it often doesn’t pay to be right. (It’s seen as a sign of weakness or

plain dumb luck.) I’m speaking, in this case, of the millions of people

who poured into the streets to demonstrate against the coming invasion

with an efflorescence

of placards that said things too simpleminded (as endless pundits

assured American news readers at the time) to take seriously — like

No Blood for Oil, Don’t Trade Lives for Oil, or How did USA’s oil

get under Iraq’s sand? At the time, it seemed clear to most reporters,

commentators, and op-ed writers that these sign-carriers represented a

crew of well-meaning know-nothings and the fact that their collective

fears proved all too prescient still can’t save them from that

conclusion. So, in their very rightness, they were largely forgotten.

Now, as has been true for some time, a majority of Americans, another obvious bunch of know-nothings, are deluded enough to favor bringing all U.S. troops out of Iraq at a reasonable pace and relatively soon. (More than 60% of them also believe

that the conflict is not integral to the success of U.S.

anti-terrorism efforts.) If, on the other hand, a poll were taken of

pundits and the inside-the-Beltway intelligentsia (not to speak of the

officials of the Bush administration), the number of them who would

want a total withdrawal from Iraq (or even see that as a reasonable

goal) would undoubtedly descend near the vanishing point. When it comes

to American imperial interests, most of them know better, just as so

many of them did before the war began. Even advisors to candidates who

theoretically want out of Iraq are hinting that a full-scale withdrawal is hardly the proper way to go.

So let me ask you a question (and you answer it): Given all of the

above, given the record thus far, who is likely to be right?

Tom Engelhardt, who runs the Nation Institute’s Tomdispatch.com, is the co-founder of the American Empire Project. His book, The End of Victory Culture

(University of Massachusetts Press), has been updated in a newly issued

edition that deals with victory culture’s crash-and-burn sequel in Iraq.

[Tomdispatch recommendations: For another numbered piece on Iraq, check out Gary Kamiya's eminently sane reprise of the Ten Commandments as applied to the launching of the 2003 invasion -- to be found at Salon.com. (Commandment I, Thou shalt not launch preventive wars?quot;; Commandment VI: Do not allow neoconservatives anywhere near Middle East policy?Special Bill Kristol Sub-commandment VI a:

Stop giving these buffoons prestigious jobs on newspaper-of-record

Op-Ed pages, top magazines and television shows. They have been

completely and consistently wrong about everything. Must we continue to

be subjected to their pontifications?). Also let me offer a

Tomdispatch bow of thanks to Cursor.org's daily Media Patrol column.

Someone at that site with a keen eye for the less noticed but

newsworthy pieces of any day (and an always splendid set of links)

makes my life so much easier, when gathering material for essays like

this one.]

Copyright 2008 Tom Engelhardt

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This time feels different

Saturday, March 29th, 2008

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON — It’s been almost an article of faith: Any recession this year will be mild and brief.

But now the stunning meltdown of a top Wall Street investment bank and stubbornly persistent financial market turbulence has called that into question, raising fears that severe problems in housing and the nation’s bedrock financial system could cripple the economy and wallop many millions of Americans.

No less an authority than former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan wrote this week that “the current financial crisis in the U.S. is likely to be judged as the most wrenching” since the end of World War II.

Other noted economists are also sounding alarms. Harvard professor Martin Feldstein, the former head of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said recently he believes the country is now in a recession and it could be a severe one.

While it will be many months before the bureau’s cycle dating committee, the unofficial arbiter of when recessions begin and end, makes its own ruling, a growing number of private economists already have a downturn figured into their forecasts. They are generally calling for a mild recession that will end this summer when the economic stimulus checks going to 130 million households start getting spent.

But the severe credit crisis that erupted last August — and claimed its biggest victim this past weekend with the forced sale of Bear Stearns Co. — is raising doubts about those mild forecasts.

“Bear Stearns was a clear wake-up call. It resonates with everybody and highlights the severity of the stresses in the financial system,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com.

What got people’s attention was how quickly Bear Stearns, the nation’s fifth largest investment bank, could go from a stock market value of about $3.5 billion when the market closed on March 14 to being sold at the bargain-basement price of about $236 million two days later.

The Federal Reserve rushed in to take unprecedented actions. It provided a $30 billion line of credit to facilitate the sale and is employing Depression-era provisions that for the first time are providing direct Fed loans to investment banks. Most analysts said the Fed was justified and that its efforts highlighted the severity of the dangers facing the financial system.

The turmoil produced wild swings on Wall Street this week with the Dow Jones industrial average surging on Tuesday after the Fed aggressively cut a key interest rate only to plunge on Wednesday on renewed worries about the economy and then to stage a 262-point gain on Thursday. Markets were closed Friday.

More turbulence is expected in coming weeks because there remains a great deal of uncertainty about how many more victims the credit crisis will claim.

The problems began last year with rising defaults on mortgages as a housing slump intensified, but they have now spread to other parts of the credit markets with institutions growing fearful about making other types of loans.

It is the ability to get credit that makes the financial system and the economy it supports function. When banks stop lending to other institutions that, like Bear Stearns, depend on credit to conduct their day-to-day operations, the results can be catastrophic.

“We can’t afford to stagger from one day to the next without knowing what large financial institution might be the next to go down the tubes because of a lack of liquidity. That is way too dangerous a game,” said Lyle Gramley, a former Fed board member who is now an economist with the Stanford Financial Group. “It is possible that we could be entering the worst recession of the post World War II period. The threat is certainly there.”

Because of Bear Stearns, many analysts are raising the odds that a 2008 recession could be worse than expected.

“The potential freezing up of the financial system could have pretty negative ramifications on bank lending which would have negative ramifications on consumer and business spending,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass., forecasting firm. He said he had upped the chances of a worse-than-expected recession to 40 percent, up from 25 percent odds before Bear Stearns.

David Wyss, chief economist at Standard %26amp; Poor’s in New York, said he now has a worst-case-scenario in which the country could endure a double-dip recession in which the economy would briefly recover this summer, helped by the $168 billion in tax relief, only to quickly slip back into a downturn. Under this scenario, the economy’s total output, as measured by the gross domestic product, would drop by 2.2 percentage points, making it the third worst recession in the post World War II period.

The worst recession in recent decades, in terms of lost output, occurred in the 1973-75 period of oil shocks, when GDP fell by 3.1 percent, followed by the 1981-82 recession, when GDP dropped by 2.9 percent.

By contrast, in the last two recessions output fell by 1.3 percent in the 1990-91 downturn, and a tiny 0.3 percent in the 2001 recession, making that slump the mildest in the post-war period in terms of lost output. The 2001 downturn lasted just eight months.

Wyss’ baseline forecast calls for the 2008 downturn to trim GDP by just 0.5 percent and last for nine months, from last November until August.

Under that forecast, unemployment, which hit a low in this expansion of 4.4 percent and now stands at 4.8 percent, will rise to around 6 percent, meaning 1.5 million people will lose their jobs. Under the worst-case forecast, unemployment jumps to 7.5 percent, meaning 3 million people would be tossed out of work.

“There would be bigger drops in the stock market and in home prices than we are now anticipating and more people out of work,” Wyss said. “There would be a lot of pain all the way around.”

While they are developing worst-case-scenarios, Wyss and other economists said they still believe the balance has not tipped from their more benign main forecasts. One thing that gives them hope is the expectation that Congress and the Bush administration, having acted so quickly to pass the first stimulus package, will move quickly, especially in an election year, to pass a second package if needed.

Also, analysts said the Bear Stearns crisis, which has already prompted the Fed to move more aggressively, will also probably trigger a bigger response on the part of Congress and the administration in offering help to homeowners to keep them from losing their homes because of mortgage defaults.

“Historically, when policymakers have acted in a concerted and aggressive way, that signals that we are nearing the end of the crisis,” said Zandi. “If that occurs this time and the financial markets stabilize in the next few months, then the economy will suffer but it won’t be a prolonged and severe recession.”

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Bush waives law to help Pakistan

Saturday, March 29th, 2008

(Aljazeera)

Pakistan is set to receive millions of dollars from the US to fight terrorism this year, the White House has said, soon after a new government took power in Islamabad.

George Bush, US president, has exempted Pakistan from a law that restricts funding countries where the legitimate head of state was deposed by a military coup, as in Pakistan.

The White House said on Tuesday that Bush had asked the US congress for about $300m for security assistance in Pakistan.

Bush has granted Pakistan, a major US ally, a waiver on the law since 2003 despite Pervez Musharraf, the country president, taking power by force in 1999.

Strategic role

Gordon Johndroe, a White House spokesman, said the Bush administration was concerned about the human rights situation in Pakistan but said it had a strategic role to play.

The Pakistani government is conducting military, police, and intelligence operations to fight terrorist groups on Pakistani soil and bring terrorists to justice, Johndroe said.

The White House announcement came as Musharraf swore in Yousuf Raza Gilani, Pakistan new prime minister.

Gilani, a key aide of assassinated political leader Benazir Bhutto, was selected by parliament on Monday.

He is a member of a coalition that won the general elections last month and which has indicated it will review Musharraf co-operation with Washington.

Johndroe said the US has concerns about respect for fundamental civil and political rights in Pakistan, referring to a state of emergency imposed in November and the suspension of the country constitution.

But he said Musharraf had kept his commitments to step down as Pakistan military chief and be sworn in as a civilian president, as well as to lift the state of emergency.

He also said that multi-party elections had been held.

We are currently assessing the impact of those elections on future requirements for waivers of coup-related sanctions, Johndroe said.

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Iraq’s toll

Saturday, March 22nd, 2008

Recently, an examination of over 6,000 Iraqi documents, audio and video records collected by the U.S. military confirmed what pretty much has already been established, that the Bush administration’s statements pointing to a collaboration between al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein were all lies and exaggerations.

Although journalists and news organizations have since grudgingly expressed mea culpas for failing to hold those in power more accountable, their fear of appearing unpatriotic has had disastrous results for both the U.S. and Iraq.

Now, not only do we have our brave men and women precariously placed in the unfeasible position of trying to win hearts and minds, while at the same time combating an enemy that is invisible, ruthless and smart, “atrocities” have occurred in Iraq on a huge scale due to the direct effects of our invasion and occupation.

Totally absent in U.S. mainstream media is any discussion regarding the huge toll paid by the Iraqi people in terms of population displacement, over 4 million, over 1 million lives lost and complete destruction of its society and culture. This has not gone unobserved by any means in the foreign press.

The sooner our nation can catch up to the rest of the world and acknowledge what has actually transpired, with or without the blessings of Bush, Cheney and Fox News, the more a realistic and corrective course of action in Iraq will seem obvious to us all.

But, there have also been some disturbing signs these recent months that Iran may also be hearing from us before this year ends with a new administration in place. A minimal amount of research should confirm this for anyone needing convinced.

By raising our collective voice against our government’s desire to open up another front in Bush’s war on terror, we may just prevent paying for future atrocities with our soldiers’ lives and tax dollars.

Demonstrating to the world that at least the American people are principled and peace loving would seem to be of the highest priority, even though the Bush administration may have other plans.

As Voltaire said, “Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities.”

MIKE GOLLIHER

Burlington

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